Four Factors: WNBA Finals Preview
The SUPERTEAM WNBA Finals is here! In this preview, we go deep into the matchup between the Aces and Liberty by breaking down how A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Kelsey Plum will play
The Aces and the Liberty, as it always had to be. We’ve been predicting this matchup since Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Courtney Vandersloot formed a “superteam” in New York and Vegas added Candace Parker (who is now injured) and Alysha Clark to their already super roster. And it’s finally here.
History will be made, even more so than other WNBA Finals. New York is seeking its first-ever title while the Aces are looking for the first repeat championship in the WNBA since the 2001-02 Sparks. When Sandy Brondello and Becky Hammon face off, it will be the first time in WNBA history that two former players are head coaches in the Finals. The matchup is also the first between female head coaches since 2015. As expansion looms in 2025, this year’s Finals may end up as the culmination of one of the most positive chapters in WNBA history. Fittingly, it could be the most-watched WNBA Finals ever. Let’s get into four factors1 that I think will be important in this series (well three factors and a prediction!).
1—Jonquel Jones on the offensive glass
In the last four matchups between these teams (since Candace Parker’s injury), the team who won the offensive rebounding won the game. Jonquel Jones made the difference on the glass in the three games that New York won. She had at least five offensive rebounds in each game, no matter who was trying to box her out. Jonquel’s efforts on the glass not only produced second-chance opportunities but also slowed down Vegas’s transition attack.
The Liberty’s prowess on the offensive glass has powered their postseason run. In these playoffs, the Liberty are 5-0 when they win the offensive rebounding battle and 0-1 when they don’t. Jones leads the playoffs with 25 o-boards. In game four against the Sun, Jonquel pulled down six offensive rebounds including a heroic one late in the game.
Jonquel can swing this series for the Liberty as she has done in both playoff series thus far. Controlling the glass will be a priority for both teams. The Liberty are already winning if that’s the case since just the threat of rebounds could slow down Vegas’s fast break. The best case for the Aces might be to hope Kiah Stokes can contain Jones enough one-on-one and risk JJ eating to prioritize the break.
2—A’ja vs Stewie
The defining players of the past five seasons have met twice in the playoffs entering the Finals. Stewart’s Storm swept the first matchup in the bubble Finals of 2020 and Wilson’s Aces dispatched the Storm in last year’s semifinals.
The rubber match comes with both players fully formed as professionals, fully healthy and surrounded by fully healthy teammates. With Stewart edging out Wilson for this year’s MVP, one of the two has won the MVP in four of the last six years and have finished in the top five in each of those seasons. Stewie beat A’ja for the 2020 title after the latter took home the regular season MVP. Now Wilson gets her turn.
The two superstars likely won’t cover each other the entire game. Kiah Stokes or Alysha Clark covered Stewart as while Jonquel Jones checked Wilson often throughout their previous meetings. In those games, Stewart was steadier than Wilson but Wilson put up the superior number in the last two matchups. Vegas has been happier to have Stewart shoot from deep than anywhere inside the arc. They’ll likely stick with going under screens and not hugging her off-ball as she’s shooting just 20% from three in the playoffs overall (although her numbers have ticked up in the last three games). New York tried to keep Wilson out of the middle in the regular season and funnel her to helpers. A’ja broke the coverage numerous times but the strategy was effective enough to expect the Liberty to employ it.
When they do match-up, it’s like watching Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on the tennis court in 2008 (I wish I could do a Serena reference but she had no rivals). The two undisputed top dogs going at it and trying to figure the other one out. When one of them has it going, they’ll elongate the possession, face up, and try to put the other on a highlight reel. When one is struggling, they’ll make moves in a hurry and hope to catch their opponent napping. I think we’ll see more Wilson vs Stewart possessions as the Finals ratchets up the pressure. Hopefully, the battles turn into the stuff of legend.
3—Plum Dog
I define an x-factor as a player who is not a first or second option on her team whose higher-end performance can push her team over the edge to a win and whose lower-end outcomes make it very difficult for her team to win. Honestly, it’s hard not to see “x-factors” all over both rosters. I talked about Jonquel Jones’ rebounding as New York’s x-factor, but Betnijah Laney has been their motor throughout the playoffs.
For Vegas, it hard at the preliminary level to decide who is not in the conversation. I’m putting A’ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray in the top dog spots since one is a perineal MVP candidate and the other just won the Finals MVP. Jackie Young, Kiah Stokes, and Alysha Clark will all have a huge impact on the series. Yet, I see Kelsey Plum as the x-factor for the Aces.
When Plum is shooting well, everything is easier for the Aces. Her shooting creates so much space since she shoots moon balls. She’s an easy kick for teammates drawing help. Her ability to rip through on the catch leads to paint touches and layups. It’s no coincidence that three of the Aces’ six losses came when Plum shot 30% or worse from the field. Against the Liberty, Vegas went 2-0 when she shot 50% or better and 0-3 when she did not.
Plum is so important because she benefits from the things this offense is designed to do and her success shows how well the team is doing those things. Plum scores most of her points in transition, off drive-and-kicks, and on screening actions where she is often the initial screener. If Vegas is getting out in transition, breaking paint on their drives, and getting into their actions, Plum should be scoring and the Aces should be in pretty good shape.
4—Predictions
I sincerely don’t have a good feel for who will win. My brain tells me Vegas, but my gut tells me New York. Throughout the playoffs, I’ve felt that one team in a series had a bunch of ways to win and the other had a very slim path to victory. Here, both teams have numerous ways to succeed and fail. It may come down to which team adjusts the best (crucially, not the most) to whatever wrinkles the opponents throws out or whichever player is hot from the field. In the end, I’ll go with the New York Liberty in 5 games because the combo of Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart will overpower Vegas’s frontcourt. Jones will be MVP in this scenario because it will feel like she dominated games through her rebounding. Let’s just hope it goes the full five games!
I like coming up with names for things and giving myself a number limit on what to talk about because it gets a bit chaotic in my mind. The name “four factors” comes from the four factors of basketball statistics popularized by Dean Oliver in Basketball on Paper.