Women's March Madness: College Park First Round Notebook
The madness has arrived in College Park for Maryland, Virginia Tech, FGCU and Delaware. Here's what I took away from the first day of practices.
Hey, I’ve been inconsistent/non-existent on this newsletter. I pivoted to video hard because I like it more than writing. But I hope to write some more on here, especially as I can get out to more basketball events. My new objective for the newsletter is to create a space for basketball no matter who is playing or where they’re playing! Let’s talk hoops!
Welcome to March Madness, officially! Through potentially erroneous decisions and luck of geography, the Basketball Gods and/or the NCAA Tournament committee has provide us with two excellent matchups in College Park, Maryland. The headliner is 12-seed FGCU going up against 5-seed Virginia Tech. Then, the 4-seed Maryland Terps take on 13-seed Delaware. Here’s a quick breakdown based on what I’ve learned about the teams and what they said on Thursday.
5 Virginia Tech Hokies vs 12 FGCU Eagles
The college basketball world remains stunned that FGCU is a 12 seed. The Eagles spent most of the season in the Top 25 and only lost twice to Ivy League Champ Princeton (another team that it is woefully under-seeded) and Stetson without Kierstan Bell, their best player. FGCU is 21st in Her Hoop Stats Rating (net rating factoring in strength of opponent) and 39th in the NCAA’s own NET rating. Teams who rated out worse than them in both stats range from 4-seeds to 9-seeds. It’s almost unexplainable. “I would love to go behind the scenes to try to figure out how they came up with the fact that Florida Gulf Coast is a 12 seed,” said VT Coach Kenny Brooks. “They're not. You know, I don't understand how you can be ranked in both polls. As a matter of fact, they're ranked ahead of us in one poll and they're a 12 seed.” FGCU’s coach Karl Smesko said that he hasn’t brought it up, but his players mentioned their seeding as a motivation point.
FGCU’s and VT’s loss is the viewer’s gain, though. This could end up being the matchup of the tournament. FGCU is 6th in the nation for effective field goal percentage (53%) and Tech is 15th (51.8%). Both teams are in the top 20 for points per 100 possessions. No team in the nation takes more threes than FGCU (961 attempts this year) and only three teams shoot a higher percentage from deep than Virginia Tech on 750 or more attempts. Here’s a neat chart for those stats. The Hokies are more traditional in their attack, but Smesko has embraced 5-out basketball since the late 90s and his Eagles play a lot like most NBA teams. “He doesn't like us shooting mid ranges,” said Kierstan Bell. “And if you do, you'll be right on the bench with him. We don't take mid ranges.”
Kierstan Bell will be a high WNBA draft pick due to her size, speed and versatility. While we knew that, two things stuck out to me during today’s media conferences and practice. First, she just feels like a star. She takes over the room when she walks in and she has you hanging on her words. My co-host on the Courtside Podcast, Christy Winters-Scott, asked Bell if she had any contact with Lebron James after Bron went to one of her high school games. She answered no, but that she knew “it’s coming.” That’s so cool. The second thing is how often her coaches and teammates called her a basketball genius. That sentiment came up in almost every conversation about Bell. While every team pumps up their star, calling someone a “basketball genius” isn’t that common of a refrain. She certainly makes some smart cuts and often makes the right play within the offense, but I’ll try to find some genius-level plays before the draft.
These two teams are pretty similar in terms of style and personnel outside of ACC Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley. When Kitley got hurt in the ACC tournament, the Hokies actually looked a little like FGCU with a full 5-out scheme. It stands to reason that Kitley will need to be the difference for Tech to win. She will need to dominate down low likely against double teams and fronting. She will also need to distribute from the low post, which she does very well. More importantly, Kitley will need to guard on the perimeter without fouling. You can bet that FGCU is going at her every chance they get in order to get Kitley in foul trouble and eliminate VT’s biggest (literally and figuratively) weapon.
FWIW, the Eagles looked very crisp and ready when they were practicing against some of Virginia Tech’s sets. They’ve seemingly prepared well for the Hokies’ playbook so Kenny Brooks will need to throw in some wrinkles (which he will do).
The matchup between the point guards, Tishara Morehouse of FGCU and Georgia Amoore of VT, should be one for the ages. That may be overselling it, but I have truly loved watching both of these players for the past two years and they will definitely get on each other’s nerves at some point. Amoore is a certified Gabe Fav (TM) due to her performance against UNC in the ACC Tournament and Morehouse is one of the fastest guards in March Madness.
Last nugget: Karl Smesko wants an algorithm to pick the teams and seeds for March Madness. The NCAA should 100% go to this idea because algorithms in college sports have always been good and no one has ever complained.
4 Maryland Terrapins vs 13 Delaware Blue Hens
While this is the lesser of the two matchups, Delaware can certainly beat Maryland to create a madness moment. The case for the Blue Hens starts with their biggest advantage: rebounding. The Blue Hens have the 6th-best offensive rebounding rate in the country and the Terps rank 175th (out of 356 teams) in defensive rebounding rate. There’s some noise in that stat since Delaware is much more athletic than the average CAA team thanks to Jasmine Dickey. But rebounding will be an issue for Maryland. In practice, Maryland’s coaches preached that “every time you bring the ball down, there will be three hands on you.” They are probably right and the Terps will have to be focused on the boards.
Maryland really needs to be focused in general. This team has very few holes when healthy, but they looked lackadaisical at times this season (mainly in two straight losses to Ohio State and Michigan). The Terps were by far the most relaxed team during Thursday’s practices, which makes sense given that they woke up in their own beds unlike the other teams. But they also didn’t seem to be overlooking Delaware. Being loose can cut either way, so I won’t read too much into it….yet.
Ashley Owusu looked pretty healthy during practice. Coach Brenda Frese was cagey about Owusu starting, but it seems like Owusu will play a big role regardless of who’s starting and she looks healthier than she did in the Big Ten Tournament. It’s very hard to read her health outside of game, though.
Jasmine Dickey declared for the WNBA draft right before the tournament. She said that March Madness beginning had no effect on the timing of her decision, which made me sad as a hacky reporter trying to find an interesting
tweetnarrative. Still, Dickey is super fun to watch and should have some highlights in this game. She is uber athletic, plays a rugged style and eats on the offensive glass. Dickey is somewhat of a one-woman show. Her usage rate is 34.7%, which is 11th-highest in the nation. Maryland will likely try to deny her the ball and make someone else beat them. I hope that Diamond Miller just blankets her all game because those two going at it full court would be wildly entertaining.