WNBA Finals History Nuggets
The WNBA Finals between the Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm begin tonight. Let's see if any WNBA history nuggets can help us figure out who will win.
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The WNBA Finals start tonight!!!!
After a 22-game sprint of a season, the WNBA season is finally at its conclusion. The top-seeded Las Vegas Aces and MVP A’ja Wilson won a brutal, hard-fought Game 5 against the seven-seed Connecticut Sun. The Seattle Storm swept the Minnesota Lynx to get to their second Finals in three years. Obviously, the schemes, matchups, and mentalities (which I talked about on the Courtside podcast) matter much more than the history of the WNBA Finals. But we still may be able to extract some value from some history nuggets and see if the past can tell us anything about the present.
Nugget 1: The WNBA MVP has won the last 4 championships.
With the MVP A’ja Wilson in the Finals, this piece of history is definitely relevant. Elena Delle Donne led her Washington Mystics to a title last season, despite suffering three herniated disks in her back. Breanna Stewart cruised to a championship in 2018 with a sweep of the Mystics (who were without Delle Donne). 2017 MVP Sylvia Fowles and 2016 MVP Nneka Ogwumike beat each other in the Finals following their MVP seasons.
The last MVP who failed to take home the title was Elena Delle Donne in 2015 as her Chicago Sky fell in the first round to the Indiana Fever. In fact, the 5 MVPs between 2011-2015 (Tamika Catchings, Tina Charles, Candace Parker, Maya Moore, and EDD) failed to make the Finals completely. Of the 24 MVPs in WNBA history, 10 have won a championship in the same year that they won MVP.
Does this nugget help us make sense of the 2020 Finals? Kind of. The concept that having the best player will help you win a championship is not complicated or debatable. A’ja Wilson was certainly the best player in the WNBA in 2020 and gives Vegas a good chance at winning.
However, A’ja and the Aces face a taller task than any of the previous four champions. Vegas lost two key pieces (Liz Cambage and Kelsey Plum) before the season and is now down the 6th Woman of the Year with Dearica Hamby on crutches. They are also facing the Seattle Storm, one of the best teams in WNBA history as far as net rating goes. Frankly, A’ja keeping this streak alive will be more impressive than the streak itself.
Nugget 2: Since 2000, teams with the WNBA’s best record are 11-5 in the Finals
I went back to 2000 because that is when league expanded to 12 teams (where it is now despite fluctuations in number of teams). The league’s best team has fallen short of the Finals in just 4 of the past 20 years (2015, 2006, 2004, 2000). While it makes sense that the best teams win, the fact is still pretty surprising.
The top seeds have only lost to some excellent teams. The Sparks beat the Lynx in 2016 with MVP Nneka Ogwumike (and an incredible roster around her) as I mentioned before. Minnesota lost to the GOAT Tamika Catchings in 2012 (whether Catchings is the GOAT is a subject for another article). In 2007, current Aces coach Bill Laimbeer and his Detroit Shock lost to the Phoenix Mercury after getting the league’s best record. The Shock flipped the script in 2008 by beating the top-seeded San Antonio Stars, who later moved to Las Vegas. After losing just 8 games in 2005, Connecticut fell to Sacramento in the Finals.
Does this nugget help us make sense of the 2020 Finals? Yes. Hot take: I think there’s a good case that Vegas will win based around the fact that they were the best team this year. Even though they ended up tied with Seattle in the standings, the Aces beat Seattle twice and played great basketball throughout 2020.
But, the fact there is no home court advantage in the bubble and the history of top seeds losing in the Finals also matters. This Seattle team, which has five players who could be all-stars, compares favorably to the great teams that beat top seeds. Breanna Stewart is on the level of Nneka in 2016, Catchings in 2012, Deanna Nolan/Katie Smith in 2008, Taurasi in 2007 and Yolanda Griffith in 2005. The rest of the team is extremely strong and knows how to win. While the Aces may have an advantage in a historical analysis, the Storm have a great roster to over come that.
Nugget 3: 10 players on the Seattle Storm have played 967 minutes in the Finals while 2 Vegas players have played 282.
This is the most jarring stat that I want to talk about. The Storm just have so much more Finals experience than the Aces coming into the matchup. Due in large part to making the 2018 Finals and keeping the core of that team, Seattle has 10 players with Finals experience led by Sue Bird who has played the most minutes of anyone in the series (288 minutes) and Natasha Howard who has played the most games (17).
Las Vegas has just two players with Finals experience: Angel McCoughtry (9 games and 274 minutes) and Sugar Rodgers (3 games and 7 minutes). Both got there with different franchises and in different roles. But, Vegas does have the coaching advantage in terms of Finals experience. Bill Laimbeer has coached 11 Finals games and is vying for his 4th WNBA title, which would tie him for most all-time. Seattle’s coach Gary Kloppenburg, who has done a great job filling in for Dan Hughes as Hughes is absent due to health concerns, has only reached the first round as a head coach before 2020.
Does this nugget help us make sense of the 2020 Finals? Yes. The WNBA Finals (and the NBA Finals for that matter) are different. The intensity, the talent level and the desperation necessary to win are just different than anything else in basketball. Knowing what that moment entails is a massive boost to a team. Seattle clearly holds the edge in that regard and I expect it to come through.
However, the Aces gain two crucial advantages from this nugget. First, Bill Laimbeer is one of the best coaches in the WNBA and has done a great job getting his team mentally prepared for big moments. He knows what the Finals are like, potentially more than anyone in basketball when you consider his coaching and playing careers. If anyone can get an inexperienced group ready for the Finals, it’s Bill Laimbeer.
Second, Angel McCoughtry has a GIANT chip on her shoulder. As I mentioned, she accounts for almost all of the Aces’s Finals experience in terms of minutes. However, she was swept in each of her three Finals appearances with Atlanta (2010, 2011, and 2013), including the 2010 loss to Sue Bird and the Seattle Storm. This might be the most relevant piece of trivia here. McCoughtry willed her team to victory in Game 4 of the semifinals and you better believe that she’s at least winning one game in these Finals come hell or high water.
Maybe none of this history matters or is instructive because of how weird 2020 has been. But it’s fun and it’s important to recognize the history of this league, which is too often ignored. What I know for sure is that we are in for a good series between two excellent basketball. In the end, maybe that’s all that should matter.
Shouts to Across The Timeline for making this research possible. ATC is a great stats site (along with Her Hoop Stats) that I think even non-basketball fans would enjoy.
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