2023 ACC Women's Basketball Tournament 1st and 2nd Round: Wake's run, Clemson's Statistical Anomaly, and Takeaways For The Eliminated
Jewel Spear and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons made a statement in the ACC Tournament as March begins to take shape
Ball and Order is a newsletter with basketball analysis, reporting, and takes that strives to cover the game no matter who is playing. My name is Gabe Ibrahim (twitter: @gabe_ibrahim). I cover the Washington Wizards for Bullets Forever, women’s basketball for Her Hoop Stats, and coach the JV basketball team at Meridian High School. Subscribe for freand tell your friends! Also, check out our YouTube channel!
It’s 3:20 am on the morning of the ACC Quarterfinals. I’m not sure why I stayed awake this long. But I wrote this about the ACC Tournament so far. I was going to write a Miami section. But my alma mater will have to settle for a newsletter of their own on a later date because, again, it’s 3:20 am. Enjoy!
BIG DEAC ENERGY
Wake Forest rolls into the quarterfinals after soundly beating Virginia and stunning FSU by erasing an 18-point lead in the second half. Head Coach Megan Gebbia is a Gabe Fav (TM) from her days in DC with the American University Eagles. She seems to be instilling a similar culture of team play and grittiness in Winston-Salem.
“I think never once have [the team] doubted what [the coaches] asked of them, and that's buy-in,” said Gebbia after the FSU win. “You need buy-in early and they bought in early to what we were trying to do. We've built this foundation defensively and they know if they play good defense, they're going to have a chance.”
The buy-in on defense was evident as the clearly tired Demon Deacons came to life in the second half. FSU hammered Wake for 16 paint points in the first half with Makayla Timpson pouring in 10 points. After FSU sprinted out to a big lead, Gebbia tried a 2-3 zone defense and the Noles responded with Hi-Lo actions to get Timpson layups. As Wake kept missing shots, Gebbia brought in Niyah Becker (#14) for Demeara Hinds for her shooting and Timpson threw her around.
The defensive shift began in the post on offense. Wake fed Hinds three straight post-entry passes and she converted each into layups. Hinds scoring a bit allowed Gebbia to keep her on the court and pushed FSU to take Timpson off the floor. Once the Decs stabilized, Gebbia abandoned the zone and had her man defense sell out to protect the paint. Instead of hedging on pick-and-rolls, Wake’s perimeters would go under and the bigs would stay attached to their assignments. They dared FSU to beat them from the outside and the Noles weren’t up to the task without star freshman Ta’Niya Latson.
Spear Me Your Excuses
Of course, playing defense is easier when you’re making baskets and making baskets starts with Jewel Spear for Wake. The junior guard already had a huge game with 19 points in the first round against Virginia. She faced a UVA defense trying to maul her at every turn and had to “cut through the contact” to score.
Against FSU, Spear had to overcome herself more so than her opponent. The Noles did send multiple players at Spear often, but didn’t fully faceguard her as the Cavs did. She just couldn’t buy a bucket in the first half, going for 0-for-8 from the field. Her first-quarter shots went short likely due to fatigue and her second-quarter attempts missed long likely due to frustration. Spear put all that behind her in the second half to snag 19 points and help Wake overcome a 20-point deficit. The tape is nasty. She gets in her bag with crossovers and step-backs, then starts celebrating and hollering at her teammates.
The thing that stuck out to me is her control of an offense she’s played in for just one season and how much she directs her teammates. Gebbia is a motion coach at heart, but she allows stars to dictate when need be. Spear finds ways to dictate within the flow and is constantly guiding her teammates in developing the team’s movement. I often heard her saying “STAGGER” or “SWING” while she was running full speed on offense. Spear has all the physical and mental tools to be a WNBA first-round pick right now. Think about where she will be with another year of development.
Clemson’s Rebounding Oddity
I’m sure most of you nerds know this, but the teams in the upper right quadrant are good at defensive rebounding, bad at offensive rebounding, teams in the upper left quadrant are good at both, teams in the lower right are bad at both, then we get to a weird zone. The bottom right features teams that are good at offensive rebounding and bad at defensive rebounding.
In researching the ACC, I was perplexed by how well Clemson hit the offensive glass so hard and failed to get defensive rebounds. Was this a scheme, personnel, or effort issue? It might make for a good post-game question! Then, I watched 20 minutes of Clemson and Pitt playing zone against each other to devastating results. The teams shot 23% from the field (10/42) in the first half yet combined for 22 offensive rebounds. In this basketball abyss lay the answer to my rebounding question.
Clemson plays a ton of zone defense and opponents with zone to neutralize the Tigers’ driving threats, Amari Robinson and Ruby Whitehorn. The biggest deficiency of any zone defense is rebounding because defenders are not matched up and struggle to effectively box out their opponents. According to Synergy Sports tracking, Clemson plays the most zone defense in the ACC and faces zone defense more than all but 4 ACC squads. For context, the three other teams (Syracuse, UVA, and BC) in the weird quadrant rank in the top 5 of time spent playing zone defense.
Mystery solved! How the hell Pitt grabbed 7 offensive rebounds and only scored 4 points in the second quarter is beyond me. Poor Lance White is probably not getting his contract renewed with the Panthers after being one of the worst P6 teams in the country. White is a really nice guy and helped me make a good TikTok one time. I hope we see him again.
Notes For The Vanquished
Boston College: The Eagles just “got a little bit worn out” in the fourth quarter against Miami, as coach Joanna Bernebei-McNamee said post-game. BC had a tough season. In January and February, they went five weeks only winning one game. However, I REALLY like where this team is heading. Freshman PG Taina Nair is the real deal with the size and smarts to take the Eagles to new heights. Junior Dontavia Waggoner, sophomore Andrea Daley, and sophomore Maria Gakdeng will all be big-impact players next season. I could see Waggoner and Nair making a run at an All-ACC selection in 2023-24. This team lost its two best players to the transfer portal this offseason and still have an extremely bright future. Let’s hope they all stay this time.
Syracuse: I didn’t really watch their game against NC State because it was a tough hang. Cuse may make the tournament or go to the NIT. Regardless, you should listen to Felisha Legette-Jack gush over her team and give thanks for the opportunity she has. I’m sure some of you are tired of hearing me talk about being the JV boys assistant coach at a small high school. It seems like small potatoes to the stuff we like to talk about. But it means a great deal to me and I really related Coach Legette-Jack’s sentiments. It’s oddly a good thing when the end of the season hurts you to the point of tears because not everyone gets to love their job so much that it hurts when you have to take a break.
Florida State: Brooke Wycoff rules. She prowls the sidelines and kind of mimes what she wants her players to do rather than just yelling it. I’m not sure it’s more effective, but it’s fun. They’ll be in the NCAA tournament unless the committee does something crazy. Hopefully, Ta’Niya Latson is back because she’s electric.
Georgia Tech: Nell Fortner needs to retool this team and find an identity for them. Cam Swartz and Bianca Jackson were good but didn’t have the impact GT thought they might as transfers. A large chunk of this team’s offense is graduating, so Fortner will have the chance to change up what they’re doing.
Virginia: They’re heading in the right direction despite a really rough end to the season. Mir McLean and Sam Brunelle going down pretty much nuked their fantastic start. Both players should be back next year and maybe UVA makes some noise in the ACC, rather than just in the non-conference slate.
Pitt: New coach is probably on the way, but is a new attitude toward investing in WBB coming with that person? If not, then Pitt will continue to leave in the cellar of the conference.