2023 ACC Tournament Semifinals Preview: Notre Dame vs Louisville and Virginia Tech vs Duke
Gabe Ibrahim is doing color commentary for Learfield Radio at the ACC Tournament this weekend. Here's his preparation with stats, nuggets, and takes about both semifinal matchups
Ball and Order is a newsletter with basketball analysis, reporting, and takes that strives to cover the game no matter who is playing. My name is Gabe Ibrahim (twitter: @gabe_ibrahim). I cover the Washington Wizards for Bullets Forever, women’s basketball for Her Hoop Stats, and coach the JV basketball team at Meridian High School. Subscribe for free and tell your friends! Also, check out our YouTube channel!
Here’s some cool personal news that I have failed to share enough: I’ll be the color commentator for Learfield Radio’s broadcasts of the ACC Women’s Basketball Tournament Semifinals and Finals this weekend!!! You can listen to the broadcasts on the app below!
It’s an amazing opportunity to bring the tactical and analytical discussions we have in this newsletter to a wider audience. Really grateful that Her Hoop Stats has partnered with Learfield to make this possible. So let’s talk about the matchup in the semifinals as a way to help me prep and for the fun!
#1 Notre Dame vs #4 Louisville
Basics
Record:
Notre Dame 15-3 ACC (25-4 overall)
Louisville 12-6 ACC (22-10 overall)
Projected NCAA Tournament seed by ESPN
Notre Dame: 3-seed in Greenville 1 bracket
Louisville: 6-seed in Seattle 3 bracket
NET Rating/AP Poll
Notre Dame: 6th in NET, #10 in AP
Louisville: 26th in NET, Receiving votes in AP
Best Win Via NET Rating:
Notre Dame: 74-60 vs #5 UConn on 12/4
Louisville: 71-63 vs #11 Texas on 11/20 (neutral site)
Worst Loss via NET rating:
Notre Dame: 50-60 at #20 North Carolina
Louisville: 57-67 at #73 Wake Forest
Injuries
Notre Dame-Olivia Miles (doubtful, right knee), Natalija Marshall (questionable, concussion?)
Louisville-NONE
Matchups:
2/16 Notre Dame won 78-76 at home in OT
2/26 Notre Dame won 68-65 at Louisville (ON THIS SHOT!)
Stats
Overall (only in-conference play)
ND: 18.5 net rtg. (93th percentile), 101.1 ORtg (80th), 82.6 DRtg (95th)
Louisville: 7.3 net rtg. (72nd), 101.6 ORtg (81st), 94.3 (44th)
Four Factors (only conference stats)
Her Hoop Stats Model Predictions
Win probability: Notre Dame (65.4%)
Score: 69.5 - 64.9
Margin: +4.6
Total points: 134.4
My Takes
This game will be very different from the first two matchups between these teams, beyond Olivia Miles’s injury. After Miles went down, Notre Dame caught fire from the midrange. The Irish shot 61% from two and posted a monstrous 113.9 offensive rating (ORtg) in the second half without their best player. In their ACC Tourney opener against NC State, the Irish only managed 97.1 ORtg, their 7th-worst mark of the season. They won that game with their defense (82.2 DRtg) and will need to rely on the D again.
Louisville has also evolved a bit in the week since that game. Chrislyn Carr only played 12 minutes then. She played 29 minutes in Louisville’s opening romp against Wake Forest. UL Coach Jeff Walz said that he told Carr after the ND game “if she didn't practice with a purpose and energy on Tuesday and Wednesday, she was not getting on the airplane to come here because I wasn't going to coach that crap.” Carr smiled about the talk because it seemingly work with her putting up 16 points against Wake. Carr also brings a third strong perimeter defender in addition to Mykasa Robinson and Hailey Van Lith.
Speaking of those perimeters, I’m expecting Louisville to press Notre Dame from the tip off. Sonia Citron is an amazing basketball player. She put up 28 points on NC State playing a new position and role. Louisville’s press will test just how good of a point guard she is as well as attack Notre Dame’s bigs if they decide to go big again. The end result may come down to whether or not Louisville’s press is successful.
Hailey Van Lith is also magical. The cross matchup of Citron covering HVL and Robinson covering Citron is the stuff we dream of in March. But the biggest factor in this game may be… the bigs. Both teams will ask a lot of their post players. Not only in the full court as I mentioned above, but in the half-court. Maddy Westbeld simply has to hit shots from outside the paint to keep the Irish scoring. On the flip side, Olivia Cochren and Liz Dixon need to exploit the Cards’ advantage on the boards.
#2 Duke vs #4 Virginia Tech
Basics
Record
Duke: 14-4 ACC (25-5 overall)
Virginia Tech: 14-4 ACC (25-4 overall)
Projected NCAA Tournament seed by ESPN
Duke: 3-seed in Seattle 4
VT: 2-seed in Greenville 2
NET Rating/AP Poll
Duke: 9th in NET, #13 in AP
VT: 12th in NET, #8 in AP
Best Win Via NET Rating:
Duke: 57-52 at #6 Notre Dame on 2/5
VT: 61-45 vs #9 Duke on 2/16
Worst Loss via NET rating:
Duke: 41-45 vs #21 North Carolina on 2/26
VT: 64-59 at #59 Clemson on 12/29
Injuries
Duke: None
VT: None
Matchups:
1/26 Duke won 66-55
2/16 VT won 61-45
Stats
Overall (only in-conference play)
VT: 9.2 net rtg. (78th percentile), 103.4 ORtg (86th), 94.2 DRtg (45th)
Duke: 12.1 net rtg. (82nd), 92.1 ORtg (46th), 80.1 (98th)
Four Factors (only conference stats)
Her Hoop Stats Model Predictions
Win probability: Virginia Tech (55.5%)
Score: 60.7 - 59.3
Margin: +1.4
Total points: 119.9
My Takes
Virginia Tech is on a freakin tear right now, having won their last 9 games since losing to the Blue Devils in January. Honestly, they look like a national title contender. Perhaps my opinion is colored by the beatdown my alma mater, Miami, suffered at the hands of the Hokies. The Canes are not an elite team, but they don’t get their teeth kicked in like that. The 26-point loss was Miami’s worse of the year by 9 points. VT posted an absurd 66.7 DRtg, their best defensive outing against a Power 6 opponent.
An interesting aspect of the Hokies’ run is that their offense has become increasingly powered by mid-range shots. ACC Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitely leads the charge in this area. To combat teams loading up the paint or playing zone, Kitley took 46.7% of her shots from the mid-range in February as opposed to her overall season mark of 37.6%. She’s hit 67.3% of her mid-rangers in that month. Let me say that again: the woman dramatically increased her mid-range attempts AND IS SHOOTING ALMOST 70% ON THOSE SHOTS.
Kitley’s mid-range magic could neutralize Duke’s biggest advantage: rim protection. The Blue Devils allow opponents to shoot just 46.7% in the restricted area, the 2nd-best mark in the country. They have very tall players in Kennedy Brown (6’6”), Taya Corosdale (6’3”), and Mia Heide (6’3”) to deter paint attempts. But it’s really a team effort with a bunch of dogs, such as ACC DPOY Celeste Taylor, running around looking to create havoc. No shots are easy against the Blue Devils… except mid-rangers to a certain extent. In general, defenses have to give up something, and the best ones like Duke usually land allowing middies. Opponents shoot 33% on mid-rangers against Duke, which lands them in the 40th percentile in that area. If Kitley gets going from mid-range, the Blue Devils will have to adapt and likely create a hole elsewhere in their defense.
I’m also not sure how Duke scores enough to hang with Tech. They posted a 72.1 ORtg in their rather putrid 44-40 win over North Carolina. It was their worst offensive showing in a win this season. If they do that again, they’re going home period. But VT’s defense was not nearly as stingy as UNC’s throughout the season. Elizabeth Balogun’s threes fell against the Tar Heels. Reigan Richardson also hit big shots. But really, Duke’s offense comes down to Celeste Taylor and Shayenne Day-Wilson getting buckets. They went a combined 4 of 18 against UNC. They’ll need to find a way to score for the Blue Devils to get to the ACC Championship.