2023 ACC Tournament Championship Preview: Virginia Tech vs Louisville
The ACC Women's Basketball Tournament has yet to have a truly great game (outside of Scooby’s 360 dunk). Virginia Tech and Louisville have the goods to make a classic
Ball and Order is a newsletter with basketball analysis, reporting, and takes that strives to cover the game no matter who is playing. My name is Gabe Ibrahim (twitter: @gabe_ibrahim). I cover the Washington Wizards for Bullets Forever, women’s basketball for Her Hoop Stats, and coach the JV basketball team at Meridian High School. Subscribe for free and tell your friends! Also, check out our YouTube channel!
It’s the last day of the ACC Tournament. I’ve watched 13 basketball games since Wednesday and haven’t slept before 2 am on any of those nights. I have such a good time and my love for Greensboro has only grown. Doing color commentary for Learfield Radio gave me a new perspective on the Semifinal games and I got a chance to work with great play-by-play guys: Gabe Genovesi and Paul Roper! I’ll be doing color commentary on Learfield Radio again tomorrow with David Khan and you can tune in on the Varsity Network app (link below). Let’s preview the finale between the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Louisville Cardinals.
#3 Virginia Tech vs #4 Louisville
Basics
Record
Virginia Tech: 14-4 ACC (26-4 overall)
Louisville: 12-6 ACC (23-10 overall)
Projected NCAA Tournament seed by ESPN
VT: 2-seed in Greenville 2
Louisville: 6-seed in Seattle 4
NET Rating/AP Poll
VT: 10th in NET, #8 in AP
Louisville: 26th in NET, Receiving votes in AP
Best Win Via NET Rating:
VT: 58-37 vs #9 Duke on 3/4 (ACC Semifinals)
Louisville: 64-38 vs #6 Notre Dame on 3/4 (ACC Semifinals)
Worst Loss via NET rating:
VT: 64-59 at #59 Clemson on 12/29
Louisville: 57-67 at #73 Wake Forest
Injuries
VT: None
Louisville: NONE
Matchups:
1/12 Virginia Tech 81 Louisville 79 at VT
Hailey Van Lith: 29 points
4 Hokies with 13+ points (Soule, Kitley, Traylor, Amoore)
Best Louisville ORtg (106.8) in loss and 2nd worst UL DRtg (111)
13th VT best ORtg (111) and worst DRtg in win (106.8)
Stats
Overall (only in-conference play)
VT: 9.2 net rtg. (78th percentile), 103.4 ORtg (86th), 94.2 DRtg (45th)
Louisville: 7.3 net rtg. (72nd), 101.6 ORtg (81st), 94.3 (44th)
Four Factors (only conference stats)
Her Hoop Stats Model Predictions
Win probability: Virginia Tech (60.5%)
Score: 65.6 - 62.7
Margin: +2.9
Total points: 128.3
My Takes
After a couple of days of blowouts and gross offense, Virginia Tech and Louisville *should* give this ACC tournament the classic that it is missing. The team’s meeting in January was a two-point affair with some of the best offensive performances in the conference this season. Both teams are healthy and playing their best basketball of the season at the perfect time. The ingredients are there for a great game.
The matchups are going to be interesting up front. The only straightforward matchup is Olivia Cochren covering Liz Kitley and vice versa. The Hokies will likely match straight up with each player covering her counterpart since they stack up well. The question is a bit more complicated for Louisville. Mykasa Robinson is Louisville’s best defender and basic logic would dictate that she should cover VT’s best perimeter threat: Georgia Amoore. But Robinson’s best skills come out when she’s allowed to roam around and clean messes across the floor. Putting Robinson on VT’s only non-shooter, Taylor Soule, could allow UL to pressure the ball more. Soule has a size advantage on Robinson and is a good post scorer, but Robinson has held her own in the post when tested.
Jeff Walz also has an interesting decision on whether or not Louisville pressures Virginia Tech full court. The Cardinals pressed the Irish to great effect yesterday. According to Synergy Sports, UL pressed on 28 possessions. Notre Dame scored on just 6 of those possessions and turned the ball over 9 times. Duke pressed VT on 21 possessions and forced 9 turnovers, but also gave up 19 points when the Hokies broke the press. Walz probably won’t press quite as much, especially with a tired team. But unleashing the press after transition scores or quick scores may lead to turnovers without the downside as the Hokies will be scrambling to get back then into their press offense.
Another thing to watch is how tired Virginia Tech is. Kenny Brooks has cut down his rotation to just 6 players and they all played a lot against Duke, a pressing and physical team. Kitley took a beating in the post as she struggled to establish position. Amoore played all 40 minutes. Louisville has 8 players in their rotation as well as a couple of extra hours of rest AND the ability to scout VT’s game yesterday rather than late last night. Perhaps pressing Tech will tire them out more. But I think the Cards need to be flying down the court on any miss or live-ball turnover. Running back to play offense is easier than running back on defense because an offense can control the tempo and take a breath whereas a defense is at the whims of an offense. Additionally, expect Brooks to slow this game down as much as possible to preserve his team’s legs.
Plays of the day
Louisville: UCLA Stagger Zoom
Louisville ran this play at least twice against Virginia Tech in January and it led to two Hailey Van Lith buckets. Tech probably has this play scouted, but it’s still very hard to defend with HVL flying up to her spot on the right wing. The Cards will likely try to attack Kitley as a help defender away from the rim and this could really test her defensively.
Virginia Tech: Empty Spain Slip
Kenny Brooks and his staff were in their bag in the Semifinals against Duke. I’ll write a whole newsletter on what plays they put together and how Brooks’s “the smartest team ever” executed them at some point. But we’ll leave it at this set for today. It took advantage of the attention that Kitley got from Duke, the Hokies’ hot shooting, and their previous use of low block back screens for Kitley to get into the post. Tech scored on this play three times in quick succession in the 3rd quarter. With Duke hard hedging the pick-and-roll, Amoore got two easy (for her) threes. Duke adjusted to try to ice the screen so Kayana Traylor just took the ball to the rim herself.
